WASHINGTON, D.C. / RankWire.AI / – Global energy prices are projected to rise 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The report, released on Wednesday, forecasts overall commodity prices to climb 23% this year as global shocks mount. Food commodity prices are expected to increase about 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027. That amounts to a cumulative rise of 18% over the two years.
The conflict in the Middle East has drawn down oil inventories and is set to push energy prices to a four-year high. Brent crude is forecast to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025. It is then expected to ease to $79 in 2027 as energy prices moderate. With oil stocks depleted, the world is more exposed to further supply shocks, the bank said.
Global oil supply is projected to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 global recession. Consumption is expected to decline 2.5%, the third-largest annual contraction on record after 2020 and 1980. High prices amid supply shortages are curbing demand, while electrification is reducing oil use, particularly in China. Production nonetheless remains below consumption, forcing further withdrawals from oil stocks. The bank said the conflict is forcing adjustments in how the world produces and consumes energy.
Food and fertilizer costs climb
Disrupted grain shipments and El Niño threaten harvests and food affordability, according to the report. High fuel and fertilizer prices are also raising agricultural costs. Fertilizer prices are set to rise 14% in 2026 after a surge in urea prices early in the year that has since eased. They are expected to return to 2025 levels in 2027. Rising food costs add to existing pressure on household grocery budgets.
In an adverse scenario where these risks materialize together, Brent could average $105 a barrel in 2027. That would be well above the $79 baseline forecast for that year. Food commodity prices could then be 12% higher than expected in the baseline, surpassing their 2022 level. The adverse case assumes the conflict, El Niño and supply risks all hit at the same time. Under the baseline, overall commodity prices are forecast to decline by 7% in 2027.
Metals hit records as bank offers support
Metals prices are set to reach a new high in 2026, rising 25% as aluminum, copper and tin all hit record highs. Demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres, together with supply disruptions, is driving the gains. Metals prices are expected to decline 3% in 2027. Precious metals are forecast to jump 40% in 2026 on safe-haven demand. They should remain more than three times their 2015–19 average in 2027.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist, said commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once. He warned that higher energy costs and trade disruptions threaten to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth. Kose said the priority must be to protect the poorest people and support indebted low-income countries. The World Bank Group has made $50 billion to $60 billion available, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing.